Introduction

In any election, and especially 2020, we need to work to not only understand what happened in the Presidential election but also why it happened. Throughout this class, I have mostly been focused on prediction, rather than inference. In this post, I will assess an important theme of the 2020: the urban-rural divide between Republicans and Democrats, and start the process of establishing a causal relationship.

The Urban Rural Divide

Between the two major parties, there has been growing evidence of the urban rural divide since the 1980s. Cities, and generally more urban areas tend to vote for Democrat candidates, while rural areas vote for Republicans. The phenomenon is well documented. Earlier in this semester, we read chapters from Red Fighting Blue: How Geography and Electoral Rules Polarize American Politics by David Hopkins, which demonstrates the growing divide.

The growing divide between metro areas and more rural areas on the coasts of America. From chapter 6 of Red Fighting Blue.

The growing divide between metro areas and more rural areas on the coasts of America. From chapter 6 of Red Fighting Blue.

We can also see some differentiation between the coasts, meaning the Pacific Northwest and Northeast and the rest of the country. There is a much sharper divergence between urban and rural areas in the Midwest and south after the 1996 election, following Bill Clinton’s presidency.