The appendix is meant to serve as a place to include information that is not suitable for the blog, like large amounts of code output, technical details, and any other information. Each section will link to the corresponding blog post. Not every blog post will have information in the appendix.
During the blog post for polls, I built two linear models: a so called fundamentals model that is based on the economy, and the polls plus model that adds in the impact of vote shares. While the most important information was discussed in the blog post, there is some value in seeing the full regression output which is provided below. These are two sided models, meaning that there is a seperate model for candidates from the incumbent party, and from the challenging party.First, the updated fundamentals model for the incumbent:
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = inc_pv ~ rdi_q2 + gdp + period + state, data = reg_df %>%
## filter(year < 2020, incumbent_party == TRUE))
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -48.586 -5.876 -0.108 6.397 26.717
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 49.5461 3.3620 14.737 < 2e-16 ***
## rdi_q2 0.2353 0.1206 1.951 0.05178 .
## gdp 3.1317 0.5414 5.784 1.44e-08 ***
## period1992-2000 -7.5346 1.5269 -4.935 1.16e-06 ***
## period2000-2012 -3.6555 1.3846 -2.640 0.00860 **
## period2016-2020 -5.5148 1.9175 -2.876 0.00423 **
## stateAlaska -5.7579 4.9950 -1.153 0.24968
## stateArizona -0.7046 4.5788 -0.154 0.87777
## stateArkansas -3.0012 4.5750 -0.656 0.51218
## stateCalifornia -1.3591 4.1330 -0.329 0.74245
## stateColorado -4.1072 4.4326 -0.927 0.35468
## stateConnecticut -0.4350 4.1328 -0.105 0.91623
## stateDelaware -2.4641 4.4388 -0.555 0.57911
## stateDistrict of Columbia 10.8615 6.3903 1.700 0.08994 .
## stateFlorida 0.4663 4.3107 0.108 0.91390
## stateGeorgia -0.0800 4.5789 -0.017 0.98607
## stateHawaii 0.4232 4.4310 0.096 0.92395
## stateIdaho -6.3870 4.9923 -1.279 0.20148
## stateIllinois -0.5636 4.1391 -0.136 0.89175
## stateIndiana -2.2652 4.4329 -0.511 0.60963
## stateIowa -2.8968 4.3250 -0.670 0.50338
## stateKansas -1.3178 4.2203 -0.312 0.75501
## stateKentucky -2.2043 4.4322 -0.497 0.61921
## stateLouisiana -0.9510 4.5792 -0.208 0.83559
## stateMaine -0.4962 4.7576 -0.104 0.91698
## stateMaryland -0.2925 4.3152 -0.068 0.94598
## stateMassachusetts -1.5174 4.3105 -0.352 0.72499
## stateMichigan -1.1842 4.2168 -0.281 0.77898
## stateMinnesota -3.6474 4.1440 -0.880 0.37928
## stateMississippi 0.5242 4.7598 0.110 0.91236
## stateMissouri -1.7158 4.2160 -0.407 0.68424
## stateMontana -5.3714 4.5806 -1.173 0.24161
## stateNebraska -0.1835 4.3169 -0.043 0.96612
## stateNevada -2.8150 4.5780 -0.615 0.53897
## stateNew Hampshire -0.1694 4.5827 -0.037 0.97052
## stateNew Jersey 1.1620 4.1345 0.281 0.77880
## stateNew Mexico -1.8630 4.5792 -0.407 0.68433
## stateNew York -2.9712 4.1402 -0.718 0.47337
## stateNorth Carolina 0.8889 4.2163 0.211 0.83313
## stateNorth Dakota -5.5309 4.4452 -1.244 0.21411
## stateOhio -1.4722 4.1345 -0.356 0.72196
## stateOklahoma -4.5502 4.7591 -0.956 0.33959
## stateOregon -2.9532 4.2192 -0.700 0.48435
## statePennsylvania -1.3644 4.4363 -0.308 0.75857
## stateRhode Island -0.3705 4.4328 -0.084 0.93343
## stateSouth Carolina -1.1537 4.4386 -0.260 0.79505
## stateSouth Dakota -3.9212 4.5825 -0.856 0.39266
## stateTennessee -1.2635 4.5787 -0.276 0.78273
## stateTexas -1.2575 4.3118 -0.292 0.77070
## stateUtah -1.5278 4.3168 -0.354 0.72358
## stateVermont -2.0960 4.5790 -0.458 0.64738
## stateVirginia 0.2682 4.3105 0.062 0.95042
## stateWashington -2.5460 4.2138 -0.604 0.54604
## stateWest Virginia -3.7123 4.3106 -0.861 0.38962
## stateWisconsin -2.3188 4.3122 -0.538 0.59105
## stateWyoming -6.7698 4.9881 -1.357 0.17546
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 9.638 on 415 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.175, Adjusted R-squared: 0.06564
## F-statistic: 1.6 on 55 and 415 DF, p-value: 0.006087Then, for the challenger:
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = chl_pv ~ rdi_q2 + gdp + period + state, data = reg_df %>%
## filter(year < 2020, incumbent_party == FALSE))
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -28.313 -5.150 0.126 5.509 51.661
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 47.784224 3.137324 15.231 < 2e-16 ***
## rdi_q2 -0.156478 0.112588 -1.390 0.165325
## gdp -1.688159 0.505247 -3.341 0.000910 ***
## period1992-2000 -0.534162 1.424854 -0.375 0.707934
## period2000-2012 4.603864 1.292056 3.563 0.000409 ***
## period2016-2020 3.073764 1.789315 1.718 0.086571 .
## stateAlaska -3.850431 4.661216 -0.826 0.409246
## stateArizona -2.041250 4.272839 -0.478 0.633096
## stateArkansas 1.100729 4.269297 0.258 0.796670
## stateCalifornia -1.705084 3.856770 -0.442 0.658646
## stateColorado -0.084933 4.136364 -0.021 0.983628
## stateConnecticut -2.385483 3.856625 -0.619 0.536558
## stateDelaware 0.143886 4.142158 0.035 0.972306
## stateDistrict of Columbia -11.500359 5.963309 -1.929 0.054472 .
## stateFlorida -1.685789 4.022656 -0.419 0.675379
## stateGeorgia -0.157727 4.272892 -0.037 0.970572
## stateHawaii -3.572543 4.134901 -0.864 0.388088
## stateIdaho -1.569038 4.658646 -0.337 0.736437
## stateIllinois -0.788827 3.862513 -0.204 0.838277
## stateIndiana 0.416822 4.136676 0.101 0.919788
## stateIowa 0.530261 4.036013 0.131 0.895537
## stateKansas -2.053620 3.938284 -0.521 0.602331
## stateKentucky 1.265126 4.136018 0.306 0.759849
## stateLouisiana 0.220302 4.273159 0.052 0.958908
## stateMaine -2.987572 4.439688 -0.673 0.501370
## stateMaryland -0.508498 4.026798 -0.126 0.899573
## stateMassachusetts -2.879135 4.022424 -0.716 0.474535
## stateMichigan -0.653853 3.935034 -0.166 0.868110
## stateMinnesota 0.013422 3.867030 0.003 0.997232
## stateMississippi 0.067926 4.441734 0.015 0.987806
## stateMissouri 0.113065 3.934250 0.029 0.977087
## stateMontana 0.453681 4.274481 0.106 0.915525
## stateNebraska -2.532550 4.028412 -0.629 0.529910
## stateNevada 0.702459 4.272109 0.164 0.869473
## stateNew Hampshire -2.621784 4.276457 -0.613 0.540163
## stateNew Jersey -2.709793 3.858162 -0.702 0.482853
## stateNew Mexico -0.883489 4.273159 -0.207 0.836304
## stateNew York -4.235493 3.863532 -1.096 0.273594
## stateNorth Carolina -1.289240 3.934533 -0.328 0.743324
## stateNorth Dakota 1.675393 4.148111 0.404 0.686499
## stateOhio -0.742287 3.858258 -0.192 0.847531
## stateOklahoma 1.330626 4.441124 0.300 0.764621
## stateOregon -0.750372 3.937278 -0.191 0.848947
## statePennsylvania -0.172776 4.139884 -0.042 0.966730
## stateRhode Island -3.964646 4.136613 -0.958 0.338405
## stateSouth Carolina 1.421124 4.141994 0.343 0.731696
## stateSouth Dakota 1.505309 4.276283 0.352 0.725007
## stateTennessee 1.369699 4.272752 0.321 0.748701
## stateTexas -0.002649 4.023637 -0.001 0.999475
## stateUtah -5.025799 4.028320 -1.248 0.212875
## stateVermont -3.244297 4.272986 -0.759 0.448130
## stateVirginia -1.311202 4.022422 -0.326 0.744609
## stateWashington -1.544308 3.932234 -0.393 0.694720
## stateWest Virginia 2.383035 4.022588 0.592 0.553896
## stateWisconsin -0.354337 4.024024 -0.088 0.929875
## stateWyoming 1.880744 4.654795 0.404 0.686388
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 8.994 on 415 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.1633, Adjusted R-squared: 0.05241
## F-statistic: 1.473 on 55 and 415 DF, p-value: 0.02009I also built the polls plus model, that uses the fundamentals and a polling average as predictors in a linear model. For the incumbent, the regression results are as follows:
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = inc_pv ~ rdi_q2 + gdp + period + state + avg_poll,
## data = reg_df %>% filter(year < 2020, incumbent_party ==
## TRUE))
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -11.1444 -2.7123 -0.3084 2.4622 14.2650
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 7.77473 1.93997 4.008 7.27e-05 ***
## rdi_q2 -0.03763 0.05769 -0.652 0.5145
## gdp -0.51858 0.27438 -1.890 0.0595 .
## period1992-2000 -1.67410 0.74070 -2.260 0.0243 *
## period2000-2012 -2.68327 0.65731 -4.082 5.35e-05 ***
## period2016-2020 -3.82300 0.91068 -4.198 3.30e-05 ***
## stateAlaska -0.74105 2.37320 -0.312 0.7550
## stateArizona 0.66868 2.17236 0.308 0.7584
## stateArkansas -0.38088 2.17137 -0.175 0.8608
## stateCalifornia 0.79189 1.96138 0.404 0.6866
## stateColorado -0.83474 2.10446 -0.397 0.6918
## stateConnecticut 0.72714 1.96072 0.371 0.7109
## stateDelaware 2.48921 2.10970 1.180 0.2387
## stateDistrict of Columbia -2.02249 3.05048 -0.663 0.5077
## stateFlorida -1.79313 2.04576 -0.877 0.3813
## stateGeorgia -0.61747 2.17213 -0.284 0.7763
## stateHawaii 1.66983 2.10220 0.794 0.4275
## stateIdaho -1.14665 2.37223 -0.483 0.6291
## stateIllinois -1.54123 1.96365 -0.785 0.4330
## stateIndiana -0.75112 2.10322 -0.357 0.7212
## stateIowa -1.00141 2.05228 -0.488 0.6258
## stateKansas -0.15063 2.00223 -0.075 0.9401
## stateKentucky -1.36758 2.10263 -0.650 0.5158
## stateLouisiana 0.83238 2.17274 0.383 0.7018
## stateMaine -0.27646 2.25689 -0.122 0.9026
## stateMaryland -0.13975 2.04699 -0.068 0.9456
## stateMassachusetts -0.30791 2.04502 -0.151 0.8804
## stateMichigan 0.67992 2.00095 0.340 0.7342
## stateMinnesota -2.53006 1.96599 -1.287 0.1988
## stateMississippi -1.20856 2.25838 -0.535 0.5928
## stateMissouri -1.22681 1.99998 -0.613 0.5399
## stateMontana -1.52635 2.17527 -0.702 0.4833
## stateNebraska 0.20992 2.04784 0.103 0.9184
## stateNevada -0.59997 2.17248 -0.276 0.7826
## stateNew Hampshire -1.91781 2.17439 -0.882 0.3783
## stateNew Jersey 1.38345 1.96127 0.705 0.4810
## stateNew Mexico -1.11282 2.17231 -0.512 0.6087
## stateNew York -3.13277 1.96400 -1.595 0.1115
## stateNorth Carolina -1.15674 2.00082 -0.578 0.5635
## stateNorth Dakota -1.31717 2.11160 -0.624 0.5331
## stateOhio -1.04430 1.96135 -0.532 0.5947
## stateOklahoma -2.16182 2.25849 -0.957 0.3390
## stateOregon -0.47301 2.00256 -0.236 0.8134
## statePennsylvania -1.14702 2.10448 -0.545 0.5860
## stateRhode Island 3.61890 2.10546 1.719 0.0864 .
## stateSouth Carolina 0.74893 2.10615 0.356 0.7223
## stateSouth Dakota -0.20961 2.17603 -0.096 0.9233
## stateTennessee -0.22018 2.17219 -0.101 0.9193
## stateTexas 1.08057 2.04632 0.528 0.5977
## stateUtah -1.81312 2.04778 -0.885 0.3764
## stateVermont -1.16334 2.17228 -0.536 0.5926
## stateVirginia -0.81492 2.04496 -0.398 0.6905
## stateWashington 2.04750 2.00260 1.022 0.3072
## stateWest Virginia -1.52990 2.04566 -0.748 0.4550
## stateWisconsin -0.55627 2.04611 -0.272 0.7859
## stateWyoming -0.40271 2.37221 -0.170 0.8653
## avg_poll 1.00100 0.02647 37.818 < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 4.572 on 414 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.8148, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7897
## F-statistic: 32.52 on 56 and 414 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16Then, we can also look at the results for the challengers:
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = chl_pv ~ rdi_q2 + gdp + period + state + avg_poll,
## data = reg_df %>% filter(year < 2020, incumbent_party ==
## FALSE))
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -12.9326 -2.6972 0.0469 2.6656 14.7944
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 7.48086 1.91740 3.902 0.000112 ***
## rdi_q2 0.02889 0.05594 0.517 0.605753
## gdp -1.02471 0.25064 -4.088 5.22e-05 ***
## period1992-2000 -3.11507 0.70858 -4.396 1.40e-05 ***
## period2000-2012 -2.97370 0.67334 -4.416 1.28e-05 ***
## period2016-2020 -0.08646 0.88960 -0.097 0.922627
## stateAlaska 1.66500 2.31114 0.720 0.471669
## stateArizona 1.75145 2.11651 0.828 0.408419
## stateArkansas 0.29568 2.11222 0.140 0.888741
## stateCalifornia -1.17007 1.90808 -0.613 0.540069
## stateColorado -0.92576 2.04648 -0.452 0.651241
## stateConnecticut 0.79882 1.91002 0.418 0.676000
## stateDelaware 1.47825 2.04955 0.721 0.471159
## stateDistrict of Columbia 1.77797 2.97339 0.598 0.550193
## stateFlorida 0.20216 1.99079 0.102 0.919164
## stateGeorgia 1.92473 2.11468 0.910 0.363260
## stateHawaii 1.57522 2.05066 0.768 0.442834
## stateIdaho 0.41230 2.30539 0.179 0.858151
## stateIllinois 2.60025 1.91321 1.359 0.174852
## stateIndiana -0.06539 2.04654 -0.032 0.974527
## stateIowa 1.91127 1.99707 0.957 0.339107
## stateKansas -0.35123 1.94893 -0.180 0.857069
## stateKentucky 2.06769 2.04629 1.010 0.312867
## stateLouisiana 4.65975 2.11765 2.200 0.028328 *
## stateMaine 0.16729 2.19817 0.076 0.939372
## stateMaryland 2.42684 1.99382 1.217 0.224230
## stateMassachusetts 2.15319 1.99493 1.079 0.281070
## stateMichigan 2.81558 1.94915 1.445 0.149350
## stateMinnesota 1.44710 1.91352 0.756 0.449928
## stateMississippi 1.34196 2.19770 0.611 0.541786
## stateMissouri 3.26215 1.94834 1.674 0.094822 .
## stateMontana 2.43593 2.11539 1.152 0.250182
## stateNebraska 1.12342 1.99555 0.563 0.573766
## stateNevada 1.53002 2.11362 0.724 0.469544
## stateNew Hampshire -0.13635 2.11679 -0.064 0.948671
## stateNew Jersey 1.69264 1.91267 0.885 0.376691
## stateNew Mexico 1.94377 2.11549 0.919 0.358722
## stateNew York -1.01971 1.91348 -0.533 0.594383
## stateNorth Carolina 0.82661 1.94739 0.424 0.671443
## stateNorth Dakota 2.62152 2.05232 1.277 0.202197
## stateOhio -0.54834 1.90876 -0.287 0.774044
## stateOklahoma 0.26077 2.19731 0.119 0.905589
## stateOregon 0.74573 1.94830 0.383 0.702094
## statePennsylvania 2.84321 2.04981 1.387 0.166170
## stateRhode Island 0.75044 2.05070 0.366 0.714593
## stateSouth Carolina 1.16096 2.04914 0.567 0.571321
## stateSouth Dakota 2.53145 2.11576 1.196 0.232196
## stateTennessee 3.64393 2.11477 1.723 0.085620 .
## stateTexas -0.16904 1.99058 -0.085 0.932367
## stateUtah -0.40807 1.99706 -0.204 0.838190
## stateVermont 1.71906 2.11847 0.811 0.417567
## stateVirginia 1.36836 1.99138 0.687 0.492376
## stateWashington 1.17385 1.94683 0.603 0.546871
## stateWest Virginia 3.39416 1.99025 1.705 0.088872 .
## stateWisconsin 1.12825 1.99119 0.567 0.571279
## stateWyoming 3.56052 2.30330 1.546 0.122908
## avg_poll 0.98324 0.02746 35.800 < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 4.45 on 414 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.7957, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7681
## F-statistic: 28.8 on 56 and 414 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16In this post, I further explored probabilistic models, focusing on a logistic regression with binomial output. I built a two sided model, looking at both incumbent and challenger outcomes, predicting the number of votes for a candidate given the size of the voter eligible population at the state level.
The logistic regression is of the following form:
\[ (Votes | VEP)= f(\beta_0 + \beta_1 RDI + \beta_2 GDP + \beta_3 Poll + \beta_4 Period +\beta_5 State)\] Where \(f(x)=\frac{exp(x)}{1+exp(x)}\). In addition, VEP is the eligible voting popluation, RDI is the second quarter RDI in a particular state, GDP is the national second quarter GDP, poll is the average vote share up to 4 weeks before the election, period is an indicator for 1980-1992 or 1996 onward, and state is a set of dummy variables for states. We can exmaine the output for both the incumbent party:
##
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(inc_pv, VEP - inc_pv) ~ rdi_q2 + gdp + state +
## avg_poll + period, family = binomial, data = reg_df %>% filter(year <
## 2020, incumbent_party == TRUE))
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -485.70 -66.43 0.77 64.98 371.32
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -2.313e+00 5.145e-04 -4496.62 <2e-16 ***
## rdi_q2 -1.697e-03 1.423e-05 -119.25 <2e-16 ***
## gdp -4.013e-02 5.977e-05 -671.46 <2e-16 ***
## stateAlaska 2.136e-01 1.343e-03 159.05 <2e-16 ***
## stateArizona -5.928e-02 5.934e-04 -99.90 <2e-16 ***
## stateArkansas -7.747e-02 6.980e-04 -110.98 <2e-16 ***
## stateCalifornia 5.503e-02 4.348e-04 126.57 <2e-16 ***
## stateColorado 2.120e-01 5.869e-04 361.17 <2e-16 ***
## stateConnecticut 2.589e-01 6.009e-04 430.83 <2e-16 ***
## stateDelaware 1.754e-01 1.140e-03 153.83 <2e-16 ***
## stateDistrict of Columbia -4.110e-01 2.142e-03 -191.85 <2e-16 ***
## stateFlorida 6.545e-02 4.570e-04 143.20 <2e-16 ***
## stateGeorgia -9.021e-02 5.193e-04 -173.71 <2e-16 ***
## stateHawaii -2.114e-01 9.621e-04 -219.72 <2e-16 ***
## stateIdaho 1.034e-01 9.868e-04 104.74 <2e-16 ***
## stateIllinois 1.085e-01 4.721e-04 229.76 <2e-16 ***
## stateIndiana -3.713e-02 5.590e-04 -66.42 <2e-16 ***
## stateIowa 2.488e-01 6.237e-04 398.81 <2e-16 ***
## stateKansas 1.147e-01 6.826e-04 168.09 <2e-16 ***
## stateKentucky -4.301e-02 6.018e-04 -71.47 <2e-16 ***
## stateLouisiana 1.297e-01 5.842e-04 221.98 <2e-16 ***
## stateMaine 3.185e-01 9.026e-04 352.83 <2e-16 ***
## stateMaryland 8.458e-02 5.575e-04 151.73 <2e-16 ***
## stateMassachusetts 1.858e-01 5.210e-04 356.69 <2e-16 ***
## stateMichigan 2.253e-01 4.915e-04 458.27 <2e-16 ***
## stateMinnesota 3.825e-01 5.444e-04 702.61 <2e-16 ***
## stateMississippi -4.434e-02 7.020e-04 -63.16 <2e-16 ***
## stateMissouri 1.364e-01 5.356e-04 254.67 <2e-16 ***
## stateMontana 1.639e-01 1.041e-03 157.44 <2e-16 ***
## stateNebraska 1.539e-01 7.820e-04 196.75 <2e-16 ***
## stateNevada -9.501e-02 8.160e-04 -116.43 <2e-16 ***
## stateNew Hampshire 2.171e-01 8.899e-04 243.91 <2e-16 ***
## stateNew Jersey 2.019e-01 4.986e-04 404.94 <2e-16 ***
## stateNew Mexico -4.883e-02 7.986e-04 -61.14 <2e-16 ***
## stateNew York -6.577e-02 4.545e-04 -144.70 <2e-16 ***
## stateNorth Carolina -6.300e-03 5.032e-04 -12.52 <2e-16 ***
## stateNorth Dakota 1.306e-01 1.162e-03 112.35 <2e-16 ***
## stateOhio 1.320e-01 4.722e-04 279.46 <2e-16 ***
## stateOklahoma -7.627e-02 6.606e-04 -115.46 <2e-16 ***
## stateOregon 2.218e-01 6.048e-04 366.76 <2e-16 ***
## statePennsylvania 3.315e-02 4.757e-04 69.68 <2e-16 ***
## stateRhode Island 1.687e-01 9.226e-04 182.86 <2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Carolina -1.358e-01 6.360e-04 -213.50 <2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Dakota 2.016e-01 1.093e-03 184.42 <2e-16 ***
## stateTennessee -1.222e-01 5.563e-04 -219.59 <2e-16 ***
## stateTexas -5.868e-02 4.535e-04 -129.41 <2e-16 ***
## stateUtah -2.979e-02 7.593e-04 -39.23 <2e-16 ***
## stateVermont 1.716e-01 1.219e-03 140.70 <2e-16 ***
## stateVirginia 7.415e-02 5.122e-04 144.75 <2e-16 ***
## stateWashington 2.280e-01 5.349e-04 426.28 <2e-16 ***
## stateWest Virginia -1.432e-01 7.575e-04 -188.99 <2e-16 ***
## stateWisconsin 3.112e-01 5.343e-04 582.55 <2e-16 ***
## stateWyoming 9.967e-02 1.637e-03 60.90 <2e-16 ***
## avg_poll 2.961e-02 7.352e-06 4027.07 <2e-16 ***
## period1996-2020 3.797e-02 1.202e-04 316.00 <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 28807479 on 453 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 5718638 on 399 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 5725537
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3And also the challenger party.
##
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(chl_pv, VEP - chl_pv) ~ rdi_q2 + gdp + state +
## avg_poll + period, family = binomial, data = reg_df %>% filter(year <
## 2020, incumbent_party == FALSE))
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -481.92 -74.83 -4.13 62.62 578.63
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -2.416e+00 5.569e-04 -4338.506 < 2e-16 ***
## rdi_q2 7.301e-04 1.413e-05 51.656 < 2e-16 ***
## gdp -7.680e-02 5.639e-05 -1362.143 < 2e-16 ***
## stateAlaska 2.719e-01 1.354e-03 200.884 < 2e-16 ***
## stateArizona 1.155e-02 6.031e-04 19.146 < 2e-16 ***
## stateArkansas -6.317e-02 6.943e-04 -90.981 < 2e-16 ***
## stateCalifornia 9.248e-02 4.415e-04 209.492 < 2e-16 ***
## stateColorado 2.235e-01 5.867e-04 380.992 < 2e-16 ***
## stateConnecticut 2.543e-01 6.132e-04 414.657 < 2e-16 ***
## stateDelaware 1.636e-01 1.148e-03 142.554 < 2e-16 ***
## stateDistrict of Columbia -2.061e-01 2.514e-03 -81.981 < 2e-16 ***
## stateFlorida 1.479e-01 4.644e-04 318.451 < 2e-16 ***
## stateGeorgia 3.362e-03 5.265e-04 6.385 1.72e-10 ***
## stateHawaii -1.650e-01 9.965e-04 -165.532 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIdaho 1.488e-01 9.536e-04 156.032 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIllinois 2.222e-01 4.783e-04 464.633 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIndiana 5.769e-02 5.611e-04 102.825 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIowa 3.521e-01 6.230e-04 565.164 < 2e-16 ***
## stateKansas 1.372e-01 6.883e-04 199.333 < 2e-16 ***
## stateKentucky 9.969e-02 6.024e-04 165.505 < 2e-16 ***
## stateLouisiana 2.026e-01 5.891e-04 343.886 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMaine 3.649e-01 9.203e-04 396.552 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMaryland 2.076e-01 5.692e-04 364.721 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMassachusetts 2.958e-01 5.315e-04 556.574 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMichigan 3.142e-01 4.960e-04 633.377 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMinnesota 4.784e-01 5.482e-04 872.813 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMississippi -1.804e-02 7.144e-04 -25.253 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMissouri 2.549e-01 5.372e-04 474.471 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMontana 3.088e-01 1.016e-03 303.935 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNebraska 2.014e-01 7.969e-04 252.728 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNevada -3.198e-02 8.151e-04 -39.239 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew Hampshire 3.154e-01 9.021e-04 349.676 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew Jersey 2.286e-01 5.107e-04 447.614 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew Mexico 7.312e-02 8.125e-04 89.992 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew York -1.096e-04 4.619e-04 -0.237 0.812
## stateNorth Carolina 7.645e-02 5.094e-04 150.059 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNorth Dakota 2.558e-01 1.112e-03 229.986 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOhio 2.103e-01 4.776e-04 440.291 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOklahoma -3.386e-02 6.597e-04 -51.329 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOregon 3.098e-01 6.086e-04 509.096 < 2e-16 ***
## statePennsylvania 1.731e-01 4.796e-04 360.806 < 2e-16 ***
## stateRhode Island 1.663e-01 9.429e-04 176.400 < 2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Carolina -6.664e-02 6.435e-04 -103.557 < 2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Dakota 3.279e-01 1.055e-03 310.704 < 2e-16 ***
## stateTennessee 3.568e-02 5.574e-04 64.002 < 2e-16 ***
## stateTexas -8.582e-02 4.586e-04 -187.115 < 2e-16 ***
## stateUtah 5.984e-02 7.757e-04 77.146 < 2e-16 ***
## stateVermont 2.931e-01 1.245e-03 235.447 < 2e-16 ***
## stateVirginia 1.587e-01 5.218e-04 304.220 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWashington 2.442e-01 5.416e-04 450.831 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWest Virginia -5.349e-03 7.471e-04 -7.159 8.13e-13 ***
## stateWisconsin 3.991e-01 5.374e-04 742.762 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWyoming 2.484e-01 1.564e-03 158.838 < 2e-16 ***
## avg_poll 3.064e-02 8.030e-06 3816.233 < 2e-16 ***
## period1996-2020 6.670e-02 1.234e-04 540.434 < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 31429230 on 453 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 7778657 on 399 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 7785549
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4The deviances (one way of measuring the fit of a logistic regression) are extremely high, suggesting a poor fit. In addition to the problems with a lack of variance, it would seem that this model may not be particularly helpful.
In the post on parties and uncertainty, I used a number of logistic models based on two different types of two sided model: one based on incumbency status, and one based on parties. The results of those regressions are as follows.
First look at the model for the incumbent party.
##
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(inc_votes, VEP - inc_votes) ~ rdi_q2 + gdp +
## state + avg_poll + inc_party, family = binomial, data = reg_df %>%
## filter(year < 2020, incumbent_party == TRUE))
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -369.04 -52.43 -0.22 48.95 312.11
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -2.392e+00 5.685e-04 -4208.439 <2e-16 ***
## rdi_q2 -4.422e-03 1.560e-05 -283.551 <2e-16 ***
## gdp -4.568e-02 6.087e-05 -750.468 <2e-16 ***
## stateAlaska 1.817e-01 1.592e-03 114.153 <2e-16 ***
## stateArizona -4.761e-02 6.213e-04 -76.634 <2e-16 ***
## stateArkansas -5.901e-02 7.519e-04 -78.479 <2e-16 ***
## stateCalifornia 6.092e-02 4.805e-04 126.795 <2e-16 ***
## stateColorado 2.501e-01 6.360e-04 393.229 <2e-16 ***
## stateConnecticut 2.436e-01 6.727e-04 362.098 <2e-16 ***
## stateDelaware 1.645e-01 1.296e-03 126.903 <2e-16 ***
## stateDistrict of Columbia -5.125e-02 2.093e-03 -24.484 <2e-16 ***
## stateFlorida 8.956e-02 5.005e-04 178.945 <2e-16 ***
## stateGeorgia -5.291e-02 5.578e-04 -94.853 <2e-16 ***
## stateHawaii -1.805e-01 1.064e-03 -169.675 <2e-16 ***
## stateIdaho 1.088e-01 1.070e-03 101.640 <2e-16 ***
## stateIllinois 1.296e-01 5.147e-04 251.855 <2e-16 ***
## stateIndiana 9.431e-04 6.150e-04 1.533 0.125
## stateIowa 2.604e-01 6.963e-04 373.987 <2e-16 ***
## stateKansas 7.583e-02 8.162e-04 92.902 <2e-16 ***
## stateKentucky 6.807e-03 6.754e-04 10.079 <2e-16 ***
## stateLouisiana 1.701e-01 6.191e-04 274.755 <2e-16 ***
## stateMaine 3.463e-01 8.990e-04 385.154 <2e-16 ***
## stateMaryland 1.129e-01 6.101e-04 184.994 <2e-16 ***
## stateMassachusetts 2.352e-01 5.666e-04 415.022 <2e-16 ***
## stateMichigan 2.412e-01 5.329e-04 452.584 <2e-16 ***
## stateMinnesota 4.177e-01 5.911e-04 706.596 <2e-16 ***
## stateMississippi 2.015e-02 7.710e-04 26.134 <2e-16 ***
## stateMissouri 1.590e-01 5.835e-04 272.489 <2e-16 ***
## stateMontana 1.805e-01 1.062e-03 169.926 <2e-16 ***
## stateNebraska 9.429e-02 9.284e-04 101.560 <2e-16 ***
## stateNevada -3.081e-02 8.557e-04 -36.000 <2e-16 ***
## stateNew Hampshire 2.660e-01 9.301e-04 286.023 <2e-16 ***
## stateNew Jersey 2.120e-01 5.391e-04 393.272 <2e-16 ***
## stateNew Mexico -1.558e-02 8.536e-04 -18.252 <2e-16 ***
## stateNew York -3.981e-02 4.984e-04 -79.882 <2e-16 ***
## stateNorth Carolina 8.231e-03 5.428e-04 15.164 <2e-16 ***
## stateNorth Dakota 1.654e-01 1.224e-03 135.135 <2e-16 ***
## stateOhio 1.523e-01 5.148e-04 295.923 <2e-16 ***
## stateOklahoma -8.237e-02 6.748e-04 -122.077 <2e-16 ***
## stateOregon 2.543e-01 6.385e-04 398.254 <2e-16 ***
## statePennsylvania 5.285e-02 5.121e-04 103.196 <2e-16 ***
## stateRhode Island 1.791e-01 1.060e-03 169.013 <2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Carolina -1.377e-01 6.681e-04 -206.171 <2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Dakota 1.893e-01 1.173e-03 161.414 <2e-16 ***
## stateTennessee -1.152e-01 5.927e-04 -194.379 <2e-16 ***
## stateTexas -7.280e-02 5.019e-04 -145.049 <2e-16 ***
## stateUtah -1.814e-02 8.183e-04 -22.172 <2e-16 ***
## stateVermont 2.036e-01 1.542e-03 132.010 <2e-16 ***
## stateVirginia 1.255e-01 5.604e-04 223.991 <2e-16 ***
## stateWashington 1.976e-01 5.725e-04 345.254 <2e-16 ***
## stateWest Virginia -7.691e-02 8.403e-04 -91.533 <2e-16 ***
## stateWisconsin 3.203e-01 5.719e-04 560.079 <2e-16 ***
## stateWyoming 9.533e-02 1.767e-03 53.944 <2e-16 ***
## avg_poll 3.089e-02 7.391e-06 4179.078 <2e-16 ***
## inc_partyrepublican 5.601e-02 1.242e-04 451.048 <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 27672541 on 413 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 3800967 on 359 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 3807296
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3Then the challenger party.
##
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(chl_votes, VEP - chl_votes) ~ rdi_q2 + gdp +
## state + avg_poll + inc_party, family = binomial, data = reg_df %>%
## filter(year < 2020, incumbent_party == FALSE))
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -330.57 -46.35 -0.51 53.51 349.15
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -2.463e+00 6.020e-04 -4091.495 < 2e-16 ***
## rdi_q2 -3.275e-03 1.594e-05 -205.421 < 2e-16 ***
## gdp -7.400e-02 5.643e-05 -1311.230 < 2e-16 ***
## stateAlaska 1.764e-01 1.623e-03 108.704 < 2e-16 ***
## stateArizona 2.237e-03 6.264e-04 3.571 0.000356 ***
## stateArkansas -8.230e-02 7.487e-04 -109.925 < 2e-16 ***
## stateCalifornia 6.101e-02 4.885e-04 124.895 < 2e-16 ***
## stateColorado 2.463e-01 6.359e-04 387.288 < 2e-16 ***
## stateConnecticut 2.649e-01 6.894e-04 384.238 < 2e-16 ***
## stateDelaware 2.062e-01 1.319e-03 156.302 < 2e-16 ***
## stateDistrict of Columbia -1.044e+00 5.538e-03 -188.483 < 2e-16 ***
## stateFlorida 1.304e-01 5.089e-04 256.323 < 2e-16 ***
## stateGeorgia -1.398e-02 5.659e-04 -24.708 < 2e-16 ***
## stateHawaii -2.001e-01 1.178e-03 -169.882 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIdaho 2.308e-01 9.733e-04 237.108 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIllinois 1.919e-01 5.225e-04 367.276 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIndiana 7.046e-02 6.122e-04 115.095 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIowa 3.217e-01 6.953e-04 462.725 < 2e-16 ***
## stateKansas 1.518e-01 8.095e-04 187.548 < 2e-16 ***
## stateKentucky 7.618e-02 6.838e-04 111.406 < 2e-16 ***
## stateLouisiana 1.697e-01 6.243e-04 271.849 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMaine 4.065e-01 9.053e-04 448.966 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMaryland 1.509e-01 6.327e-04 238.529 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMassachusetts 2.444e-01 5.820e-04 419.955 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMichigan 2.495e-01 5.380e-04 463.814 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMinnesota 4.672e-01 5.985e-04 780.591 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMississippi -2.084e-02 7.756e-04 -26.874 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMissouri 2.075e-01 5.869e-04 353.545 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMontana 3.089e-01 1.037e-03 297.999 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNebraska 1.586e-01 8.798e-04 180.208 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNevada 5.883e-03 8.618e-04 6.826 8.73e-12 ***
## stateNew Hampshire 3.351e-01 9.244e-04 362.486 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew Jersey 2.099e-01 5.523e-04 379.990 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew Mexico 6.466e-02 8.677e-04 74.524 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew York -3.376e-02 5.084e-04 -66.410 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNorth Carolina 6.019e-02 5.504e-04 109.361 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNorth Dakota 2.537e-01 1.195e-03 212.188 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOhio 1.801e-01 5.213e-04 345.433 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOklahoma -2.898e-02 6.710e-04 -43.197 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOregon 2.690e-01 6.437e-04 417.858 < 2e-16 ***
## statePennsylvania 1.361e-01 5.180e-04 262.733 < 2e-16 ***
## stateRhode Island 1.619e-01 1.157e-03 139.971 < 2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Carolina -6.435e-02 6.758e-04 -95.232 < 2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Dakota 2.863e-01 1.122e-03 255.202 < 2e-16 ***
## stateTennessee 1.649e-02 5.950e-04 27.722 < 2e-16 ***
## stateTexas -8.607e-02 5.072e-04 -169.690 < 2e-16 ***
## stateUtah 7.281e-02 8.247e-04 88.293 < 2e-16 ***
## stateVermont 3.074e-01 1.565e-03 196.445 < 2e-16 ***
## stateVirginia 1.289e-01 5.679e-04 227.012 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWashington 2.261e-01 5.808e-04 389.341 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWest Virginia -3.935e-02 8.409e-04 -46.795 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWisconsin 3.999e-01 5.770e-04 692.936 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWyoming 2.124e-01 1.754e-03 121.068 < 2e-16 ***
## avg_poll 3.249e-02 8.137e-06 3993.281 < 2e-16 ***
## inc_partyrepublican 5.443e-02 1.297e-04 419.628 < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 29524520 on 413 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 4203355 on 359 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 4209677
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3We can then switch over to the party based model. First look at the Democrat side.
##
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(D, VEP - D) ~ rdi_q2 + gdp + state + avg_poll +
## incumbent_party, family = binomial, data = reg_df %>% filter(year <
## 2020, party == "democrat"))
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -359.88 -50.52 2.92 49.17 307.24
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -2.393e+00 6.358e-04 -3763.660 < 2e-16 ***
## rdi_q2 -3.325e-03 1.600e-05 -207.877 < 2e-16 ***
## gdp -4.903e-02 5.976e-05 -820.449 < 2e-16 ***
## stateAlaska 2.545e-02 1.720e-03 14.798 < 2e-16 ***
## stateArizona -4.309e-02 6.534e-04 -65.953 < 2e-16 ***
## stateArkansas -1.215e-01 7.843e-04 -154.956 < 2e-16 ***
## stateCalifornia 7.202e-02 5.208e-04 138.291 < 2e-16 ***
## stateColorado 2.672e-01 6.579e-04 406.217 < 2e-16 ***
## stateConnecticut 2.450e-01 6.976e-04 351.276 < 2e-16 ***
## stateDelaware 2.210e-01 1.282e-03 172.362 < 2e-16 ***
## stateDistrict of Columbia -9.515e-02 2.135e-03 -44.568 < 2e-16 ***
## stateFlorida 9.547e-02 5.341e-04 178.741 < 2e-16 ***
## stateGeorgia -4.536e-02 5.905e-04 -76.816 < 2e-16 ***
## stateHawaii -1.827e-01 1.066e-03 -171.439 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIdaho 1.078e-01 1.130e-03 95.398 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIllinois 1.504e-01 5.491e-04 273.815 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIndiana 2.855e-02 6.445e-04 44.305 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIowa 2.769e-01 7.148e-04 387.350 < 2e-16 ***
## stateKansas 5.687e-02 8.666e-04 65.628 < 2e-16 ***
## stateKentucky -1.075e-02 7.206e-04 -14.920 < 2e-16 ***
## stateLouisiana 1.767e-01 6.493e-04 272.184 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMaine 4.012e-01 9.022e-04 444.713 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMaryland 1.334e-01 6.409e-04 208.147 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMassachusetts 2.585e-01 6.023e-04 429.151 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMichigan 2.446e-01 5.609e-04 436.002 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMinnesota 4.268e-01 6.192e-04 689.201 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMississippi 5.689e-03 8.115e-04 7.011 2.36e-12 ***
## stateMissouri 1.379e-01 6.123e-04 225.304 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMontana 2.369e-01 1.092e-03 217.004 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNebraska 5.294e-02 9.887e-04 53.550 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNevada 3.108e-02 8.720e-04 35.640 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew Hampshire 2.693e-01 9.412e-04 286.155 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew Jersey 2.076e-01 5.711e-04 363.502 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew Mexico 2.325e-02 8.690e-04 26.761 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew York -1.924e-02 5.404e-04 -35.598 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNorth Carolina -8.300e-03 5.768e-04 -14.391 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNorth Dakota 1.129e-01 1.295e-03 87.209 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOhio 1.364e-01 5.463e-04 249.632 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOklahoma -9.826e-02 7.273e-04 -135.100 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOregon 2.675e-01 6.603e-04 405.191 < 2e-16 ***
## statePennsylvania 8.368e-02 5.431e-04 154.087 < 2e-16 ***
## stateRhode Island 2.087e-01 1.069e-03 195.245 < 2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Carolina -1.176e-01 7.075e-04 -166.273 < 2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Dakota 1.702e-01 1.215e-03 140.064 < 2e-16 ***
## stateTennessee -1.306e-01 6.268e-04 -208.329 < 2e-16 ***
## stateTexas -6.568e-02 5.335e-04 -123.124 < 2e-16 ***
## stateUtah -2.862e-02 9.307e-04 -30.756 < 2e-16 ***
## stateVermont 3.018e-01 1.474e-03 204.803 < 2e-16 ***
## stateVirginia 1.268e-01 5.906e-04 214.636 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWashington 2.121e-01 6.007e-04 353.020 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWest Virginia -1.283e-01 8.710e-04 -147.319 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWisconsin 3.492e-01 5.988e-04 583.233 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWyoming 9.333e-02 1.943e-03 48.040 < 2e-16 ***
## avg_poll 3.214e-02 9.978e-06 3220.834 < 2e-16 ***
## incumbent_partyTRUE -6.783e-02 1.235e-04 -549.199 < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 31804157 on 413 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 4091837 on 359 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 4098155
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3Then, finally, we can look at the Republcan side.
##
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(R, VEP - R) ~ rdi_q2 + gdp + state + avg_poll +
## incumbent_party, family = binomial, data = reg_df %>% filter(year <
## 2020, party == "republican"))
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -334.18 -43.61 -2.20 46.05 340.31
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -2.228e+00 6.429e-04 -3464.880 < 2e-16 ***
## rdi_q2 -4.348e-03 1.532e-05 -283.859 < 2e-16 ***
## gdp -7.009e-02 5.685e-05 -1232.845 < 2e-16 ***
## stateAlaska 2.815e-01 1.527e-03 184.356 < 2e-16 ***
## stateArizona -2.579e-02 6.003e-04 -42.964 < 2e-16 ***
## stateArkansas -3.967e-02 7.224e-04 -54.911 < 2e-16 ***
## stateCalifornia -3.646e-03 4.781e-04 -7.626 2.42e-14 ***
## stateColorado 2.015e-01 6.226e-04 323.670 < 2e-16 ***
## stateConnecticut 2.120e-01 6.807e-04 311.394 < 2e-16 ***
## stateDelaware 8.979e-02 1.352e-03 66.421 < 2e-16 ***
## stateDistrict of Columbia -1.247e+00 5.542e-03 -224.990 < 2e-16 ***
## stateFlorida 1.009e-01 4.844e-04 208.230 < 2e-16 ***
## stateGeorgia -4.167e-02 5.402e-04 -77.142 < 2e-16 ***
## stateHawaii -2.826e-01 1.208e-03 -233.864 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIdaho 2.419e-01 9.352e-04 258.692 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIllinois 1.167e-01 5.158e-04 226.263 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIndiana 3.184e-02 5.868e-04 54.266 < 2e-16 ***
## stateIowa 2.692e-01 6.874e-04 391.567 < 2e-16 ***
## stateKansas 1.513e-01 7.698e-04 196.484 < 2e-16 ***
## stateKentucky 7.480e-02 6.458e-04 115.825 < 2e-16 ***
## stateLouisiana 1.481e-01 5.980e-04 247.660 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMaine 2.906e-01 9.204e-04 315.732 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMaryland 5.890e-02 6.346e-04 92.819 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMassachusetts 1.428e-01 5.911e-04 241.498 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMichigan 2.004e-01 5.284e-04 379.282 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMinnesota 4.103e-01 5.902e-04 695.243 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMississippi -1.164e-02 7.396e-04 -15.735 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMissouri 2.025e-01 5.665e-04 357.409 < 2e-16 ***
## stateMontana 2.410e-01 1.010e-03 238.570 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNebraska 1.967e-01 8.400e-04 234.177 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNevada -8.440e-02 8.530e-04 -98.940 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew Hampshire 2.940e-01 9.220e-04 318.841 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew Jersey 1.680e-01 5.378e-04 312.366 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew Mexico -1.686e-02 8.640e-04 -19.519 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNew York -1.291e-01 5.113e-04 -252.452 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNorth Carolina 5.291e-02 5.254e-04 100.691 < 2e-16 ***
## stateNorth Dakota 2.813e-01 1.146e-03 245.523 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOhio 1.661e-01 5.005e-04 331.901 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOklahoma -1.063e-02 6.304e-04 -16.867 < 2e-16 ***
## stateOregon 2.104e-01 6.386e-04 329.522 < 2e-16 ***
## statePennsylvania 6.531e-02 5.031e-04 129.814 < 2e-16 ***
## stateRhode Island 4.824e-02 1.172e-03 41.173 < 2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Carolina -1.004e-01 6.423e-04 -156.295 < 2e-16 ***
## stateSouth Dakota 2.863e-01 1.092e-03 262.243 < 2e-16 ***
## stateTennessee 3.202e-03 5.690e-04 5.627 1.83e-08 ***
## stateTexas -9.383e-02 4.791e-04 -195.841 < 2e-16 ***
## stateUtah 9.163e-02 7.532e-04 121.658 < 2e-16 ***
## stateVermont 1.079e-01 1.689e-03 63.899 < 2e-16 ***
## stateVirginia 1.019e-01 5.465e-04 186.393 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWashington 1.606e-01 5.750e-04 279.304 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWest Virginia -2.055e-02 8.174e-04 -25.141 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWisconsin 3.286e-01 5.656e-04 581.007 < 2e-16 ***
## stateWyoming 1.982e-01 1.630e-03 121.556 < 2e-16 ***
## avg_poll 2.800e-02 9.301e-06 3010.531 < 2e-16 ***
## incumbent_partyTRUE 5.812e-02 1.293e-04 449.523 < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 25631135 on 413 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 3569384 on 359 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 3575717
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3